Beynəlxalq Münasibətlər və Diplomatiya Araşdırmaları Mərkəzinin rəhbəri, Politoloq Samir Hümbətov açıqlamasında deyib.
İran ilə İsrail arasında artan gərginlik bölgədə təhlükəsizliyi ciddi şəkildə sarsıdır. Son aylarda qarşılıqlı təhdidlər intensivləşib. Bu fonda İranın parçalanması ehtimalı daha çox müzakirə olunur.
Belə bir ssenaridə ən çox gündəmə gələn məsələ Cənubi Azərbaycan türklərinin mövqeyidir. Onların hansı qərarı verəcəyi müzakirə edilir. ABŞ, İsrail və Avropa İttifaqı bu prosesi diqqətlə izləyir. Böyük güclər Azərbaycanla birləşmə ehtimalına isti yanaşmaya bilər. Çünki bu, bölgədə güclü bir türk dövlətinin yaranması deməkdir.
İran bölünərsə oradakı türk əhali Türkiyəyə birləşər, Azərbaycana? Bu məsələyə ABŞ-ın, İsrailin, Brüsselin mövqeyi necədir? İranın bölünməsi gerçəkləşərsə, orada yaşayan azərbaycanlıların verəcəyi qərar həlledici olacaq:
“İlkin mərhələdə Cənubi Azərbaycanın türkləri iki əsas seçim qarşısında qala bilərlər: ya Azərbaycanla birləşərək daha böyük və güclü bir dövlət yaratmaq istəyi formalaşa bilər, ya da beynəlxalq birliyin təzyiqlərindən yayınmaq üçün müstəqil Cənubi Azərbaycan Respublikası şəklində qalmağı seçə bilərlər. Bu, birbaşa həmin dövrdə veriləcək qərardan asılı olacaq. Hazırda bu istiqamətdə dəqiq proqnoz vermək çətindir. Orada yaranacaq situasiya proseslərin hansı səmtə yönələcəyini müəyyənləşdirəcək.
Digər tərəfdən, ABŞ və digər böyük güclərin Cənubi Azərbaycanın Azərbaycan Respublikasına birləşməsini istəməyəcəkləri ehtimal olunur. Çünki bu, 50 milyondan artıq əhalisi olan və ərazisi iki dəfə böyüyən bir Azərbaycan dövləti deməkdir. Belə bir dövlət Yaxın Şərqdə geniş nüfuza malik güc mərkəzinə çevrilə bilər. Bu isə böyük güclər üçün arzuolunmazdır və onlar bu birliyə mane olmağa çalışacaqlar.
Yeni qurulacaq dövlətin içərisində molla rejiminin nümayəndələrinin və bəzi xarici ölkələrin kəşfiyyat orqanlarının agentlərinin olması da mümkündür. Ümumilikdə isə İranın dağılması onun yerində 4-5 yeni dövlətin yaranması ilə nəticələnə bilər”.
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