Beynəlxalq Münasibətlər və Diplomatiya Araşdırmaları Mərkəzinin rəhbəri, Politoloq Samir Hümbətov AzNews.az-a verdiyi açıqlamasında deyib.
“İsrailin İrana qarşı həyata keçirdiyi hava hücumu yeni hadisə deyil. Bu iki ölkə arasında artıq bir neçə dəfə oxşar qarşıdurmalar yaşanıb. Bu baxımdan, son baş verənlər də mövcud gərginliyin davamı kimi qiymətləndirilə bilər. Hazırkı vəziyyətdə nə İsrail, nə də İran genişmiqyaslı müharibəyə keçmək niyyətində deyil. Bu hücumlar daha çox bir-birinə qarşı güc nümayişi kimi görünür. Tərəflər regiondakı mövqelərini qorumaq və qarşı tərəfə siyasi-hərbi mesaj vermək məqsədi güdürlər. Hazırda böyük güclərin – xüsusilə də ABŞ, Rusiya və Çinin – bu məsələyə aktiv şəkildə reaksiya verməməsi, vəziyyətin daha ciddi qarşıdurmaya çevrilməyəcəyini göstərir”. Qeyd edək ki, İsrailin İrana qarşı hücumu beynəlxalq diqqət mərkəzinə çevrilib. Hadisə ilə bağlı geniş müzakirələr aparılır və hərbi əməliyyatların genişmiqyaslı müharibəyə çevrilə biləcəyi ehtimalı ciddi narahatlıq doğurur. Ekspertlər bildirirlər ki, vəziyyətin inkişafı böyük ölçüdə beynəlxalq güclərin mövqeyindən asılı olacaq.
Politoloqun fikrincə, elə bu səbəbdən baş verən hadisələr lokal xarakterli qarşıdurmalar kimi dəyərləndirilə bilər.
“İsrailin son hava hücumları əvvəlki illərdə də müşahidə olunub və bu, ciddi strateji dəyişiklikdən çox, mövcud siyasətin davamı təsiri bağışlayır. İran isə adətən bu hücumlara müəyyən formal cavablar verir və bu cavabların çox zaman simvolik xarakter daşıdığı görünür. Hər iki ölkənin hərbi potensialı nəzərə alındıqda, belə bir münaqişənin genişlənməsi həm regional, həm də beynəlxalq səviyyədə riskli nəticələrə səbəb ola bilər. Bu isə nə İran, nə də İsrail üçün arzuolunan ssenari deyil. Bu baxımdan, hazırda müşahidə edilən qarşıdurmanın ciddi eskalasiyaya çevriləcəyi ehtimalı aşağı qiymətləndirilir və vəziyyətin yenidən əvvəlki balanslı, lakin gərgin çərçivəyə qayıdacağı gözlənilir”.
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